Drawdowns were associated with an immediate accumulation of liquid assets followed by a depletion of this liquidity as the U. Drawdowns were generally not associated with greater levels of physical investment or employment either immediately after the drawdowns or several months later. Rather, the depletion of liquidity is simultaneous with an increase in the equity to assets ratio, consistent with repayments of the drawdowns.
These facts are consistent with the idea that firms drew down their credit lines due to a precautionary motive to mitigate future liquidity risk until the economy started to stabilize.
However, we find evidence that firms in industries that were less affected by the shutdown, such as professional services that can be performed remotely, were relatively more likely to use drawdowns to maintain investment rather than accumulate liquidity.
On the intensive margin, this is especially true for firms in such industries that drew a relatively small amount of funds. Results indicate that remittances are mitigating the negative consequences of COVID employment shocks, especially in the short run.
While the adverse effects of the shock persist over time, the mitigation effects of remittances appear to be effective only at the early stages of the pandemic. Furthermore, the mitigation effect of remittances is heterogeneous regarding the origin of remittances, residence area, and poverty status. The mitigation effect of remittances is higher for remittances from abroad than for domestic ones. We also find a higher mitigating effect of remittances in rural areas and for non-poor households.
Finally, our results shed light on the capital channel as a crucial mechanism explaining the mitigation effect of remittances. Notably, our findings suggest that formal financial inclusion, capital ownership like livestock or rental earnings, amplifies the attenuating effect of remittances.
This paper estimates the differential impact of the covid pandemic on the housing market of different neigbourhoods within the city boundaries of a tourist-intensive capital with a high density of short-term rental properties. This is the first paper to analyse the consequences of a shifting of dwellings from the short-term into the long-term rental market.
We use a panel that spans the 24 civil parishes of Lisbon between the third quarter of and the third quarter of Our identification combines the sudden and sharp decrease in tourism caused by the covid pandemic with a parish-level treatment relying on the pre-pandemic intensity of short-term rentals.
We use difference-in-differences specifications, and an instrumental variable based on the density of museums. We show that in the long-term rental market, prices decrease 4.
We also find evidence of an incremental negative impact on sale prices of 4. The results are robust to the inclusion of the second largest city of the country. In an original contribution to the COVID and trade literature, we examine the trade policy passthrough to trade flows of restrictive and liberalizing measures imposed on exports and imports of food and medical products Evenett et al.
This is found to be true in general for trade policy measures imposed on exports and imports of medical products; for food products, stylized facts suggest that the trade policy activism may have been more idiosyncratic. In some cases, however, accounting for sample heterogeneities renders the results less idiosyncratic. On the whole, our results suggest that richer, more globally integrated economies with high levels of government effectiveness may have exhibited higher trade policy effectiveness during the first nine months of the pandemic.
Using a hand-collected database of partial business closures for all U. For the restaurant and bar sector, we find that several combinations of partial capacity restrictions are as effective as full shutdowns. For gyms, we find that, while full closures reduce the COVID fatality growth rate, partial closures may be counterproductive relative to leaving capacity unrestricted.
However, other constraints are either ineffective or even counterproductive. Quick vaccine rollouts are crucial for a strong economic recovery, but vaccine hesitancy could prolong the pandemic and the need for social distancing and lockdowns. We use individual-level data from nationally representative surveys developed by YouGov and Imperial College London to empirically examine the determinants of vaccine hesitancy across 17 countries and over time.
Vaccine demand depends on demographic features such as age and gender, but also on perceptions about the severity of COVID and side effects of the vaccine, vaccine access, compliance with protective behaviors, overall trust in government, and how information is shared with peers.
We then introduce vaccine hesitancy into an extended SIR model to assess its impact on pandemic dynamics. We find that hesitancy can increase COVID infections and deaths significantly if it slows down vaccine rollouts, but has a much smaller impact if all willing adults can be immunized rapidly.
Once new Covid vaccines were approved, vaccinating the population as quickly as possible became paramount. However, in the presence of adjustment costs firms will increase production capacity only gradually.
The existing contracts specify solely that a fixed quantity is to be supplied within a specified period. At fixed prices, this kind of contract provides no incentive for an accelerated build-up of vaccine production capacities within the stipulated delivery period.
With adjustment costs, the price is however very sensitive to the length of the delivery period elasticity of3. An optimal contract would specify a decreasing price schedule over time that can replicate the social optimum.
We show in particular that different forms of adjustment costs, whether they are defined in relation to absolute or proportional increases in capacity, can lead to qualitatively different production profiles over time. Evidence from Covid vaccines is not compatible with the textbook model of adjustment costs, which assumes a relation to proportional increases in production. We also show that if governments had chosen the delivery time so as to minimize social losses, they would have spent much more on vaccine production.
This paper analyses the impact of the pandemic crisis in a dual labour market, using monthly data covering the universe of individuals registered as unemployed in Portuguese municipalities, between March and August Our event studies document a large causal impact of the pandemic of up to 40 percentage points increases in year-on-year growth rates of the monthly stock of unemployed. We document the asymmetric impact of the crisis by employing triple difference-in-differences.
There are no differences across genders for transitions into unemployment, but women have lower job placements than men. The effects are exacerbated by the duality of the labour market: an increase of one standard deviation in the municipal share of temporary contracts causes a rise of Our results can be interpreted as a lower bound of the impact of the crisis on the labour market, given the furlough scheme implemented in Portugal.
With COVID having caused significant disruption to the global education system, researchers are beginning to become concerned with the impact that this has had on student learning progress and, in particular, if learning loss has been experienced. To evaluate this, we conduct a thorough analysis of recorded learning loss evidence documented between March and March This systematic review aims to consolidate available data and document what has currently been reported in the literature.
Given the novelty of the subject, eight studies were identified; seven of these found evidence of student learning loss amongst at least some of the participants, while one of the seven also found instances of learning gains in a particular subgroup. The remaining study found increased learning gains in their participants.
Additionally, four of the studies observed increases in inequality where certain demographics of students experienced learning losses more significant than others. It is determined that further research is needed to increase the quantity of studies produced, their geographical focus, and the numbers of students they observe. Stock prices of banks with large ex-ante exposures to undrawn credit lines as well as large ex-post gross drawdowns decline more. The effect is attenuated for banks with higher capital buffers.
These banks reduce term loan lending, even after policy measures were implemented. We conclude that bank provision of credit lines appears akin to writing deep out-of-the-money put options on aggregate risk; we show how the resulting contingent leverage and stock return exposure can be incorporated tractably into bank capital stress tests.
The policy response to the COVID shock included regulatory easing across jurisdictions to loosen financial conditions by facilitating the flow of credit to the economy. Using an intraday event study, this paper examines how equity returns—a key driver in financial conditions—reacted to the announcement of these measures in a sample of 18 advanced economies and 8 emerging markets.
The paper finds that the announcement of looser regulation overall contributed to easing financial conditions, but effects varied across sectors and tools.
Financial regulatory easing led to lower valuations for financial sector stocks, and higher valuations for non-financial sector stocks, particularly for industries that are more dependent on bank financing. Furthermore, valuations declined and financial conditions tightened following announcements related to easier bank capital regulation while equity valuation rose and financial conditions loosened after those about liquidity regulation.
Effects from non-regulatory financial measures appear to be generally more muted. Identification in this setting is challenging due to differences between real and reported case data given the imperfect testing environment, as well as the clearly non-random adoption of treatment.
We extend a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered SIR model from Epidemiology to account for endogenous testing at the county level, and exploit this additional structure to recover identification. With the inclusion of model-derived sufficient statistics and fixed effects, SAH orders have a large and sustained negative effect on the growth of cases under plausible assumptions about the progression of testing.
We conclude with a discussion on extending the methodology to later phases of the pandemic. In response to the COVID crisis, governments worldwide have been formulating and implementing different strategies to mitigate its social and economic impacts. Owing to frequent delays in local governments' administrative procedures, the timing of the payment to households varied unexpectedly.
Using this natural experiment, we analyze households' consumption responses to cash transfers using high-frequency data from personal finance management software that links detailed information on expenditure, income, and wealth. We construct three consumption measures: one captures the baseline marginal propensity to consume MPC , and the other two are for the lower and the upper bound of MPC. Additionally, we explore heterogeneity in MPCs by household income, wealth, and population characteristics, as well as consumption categories.
Our results show that households exhibit immediate and non-negligible positive responses in household expenditure.
There is significant heterogeneity depending on various household characteristics, with liquidity constraint status being the most crucial factor, in line with the standard consumption theory. Additionally, this study provides policymakers with insights regarding targeted cash transfer programs, conditioning on labor income, and liquidity constraints. This paper investigates whether international exposure played a role in how companies were impacted and which strategies they used in response to the COVID crisis.
Our conceptual framework generates two testable hypotheses. First, international firms are more likely to be affected, both through demand and supply channels, than domestic firms due to their exposure to domestic and foreign lockdowns.
Second, despite higher exposure, we expect international firms to be more resilient to the crisis than domestic firms. The resilience of international firms stems from their connectivity and productivity. Our empirical analysis corroborates both sets of hypotheses. At the policy level, the results underscore the importance of global connectedness and international trade for promoting resilience to external shocks.
Using survey data collected in November from a representative sample of Italian working women, we analyze the effects of the second wave of COVID on working arrangements, housework and childcare. By comparing our results to findings from similar data collected in April on the same sample, we explore whether and how the intra-family allocation of work and household duties changed since the first wave of the pandemic. We find that the increased gender gap in the household division of labor during the first wave of COVID pandemic persisted during the second wave.
We show that the brunt of domestic chores and childcare remains on women even after accounting for different working arrangements. By contrast, men contribute fewer hours to housework and home schooling when their partners are at home. Our empirical results also show that educational attainment plays a role and that women with higher levels of education express less concern about potential loss of earnings or pension coverage. We derive an analytic expression describing how health costs and death counts of the Covid pandemic change over time as vaccination proceeds.
The key factors are that the mortality risk from a Covid infection increases exponentially with age and that the sizes of age cohorts decrease linearly at the top of the population pyramid.
Taking these factors into account, we derive an expression for a critical threshold, which determines the minimal speed a vaccination campaign needs to have in order to be able to keep fatalities from rising. Younger countries with fast vaccination campaigns find it substantially easier to reach this threshold than countries with aged population and slower vaccination. We find that for EU countries it will take some time to reach this threshold, given that the new, now dominant, mutations, have a significantly higher infection rate.
The urgency of accelerating vaccination is increased by early evidence that the new strains also have a higher mortality risk. We also find that protecting the over 60 years old, which constitute one quarter of the EU population, would reduce the loss of live by 95 percent.
I calibrate an eco-epidemiological age-structured SIR model of the B. Three-quarters of the welfare benefit of the vaccine can be achieved with a speed of , full vaccination per day.
A 1-week delay in the vaccination campaign raises the death toll by approximately 2,, and it reduces wealth by 8 billion euros. Because of the large heterogeneity of the rates of hospitalization and mortality across age classes, it is critically important for the number of lives saved and for the economy to vaccinate older people first.
Any departure from this policy has a welfare cost. Prioritizing the allocation of vaccines to the most vulnerable people save 70k seniors, but it also increases the death toll of younger people by 14k. Vaccine nationalism is modeled by assuming two identical Frances, one with a vaccine production capacity and the other without it.
I also measure the welfare impact of the strong French anti-vax movement, and of the prohibition of an immunity passport. Analysis of new panel data indicates that eviction moratoria reduced evictions and resulted in redirection of scarce household financial resources to immediate consumption needs, notably including food and grocery spending.
We also find that eviction moratoria reduced household food insecurity and mental stress, with larger effects evidenced among African American households.
Findings suggest broad salutary effects of eviction moratoria during a period of widespread virus and economic distress. Using a sample of countries, we evaluate the effect of the pre-Covid fiscal space on the size of the fiscal stimulus packages in response to the virus.
We find that higher ratings and higher tax revenues to public debt predict the size of fiscal stimuli, while public debt to GDP does not. Following the Great Lockdown in , it is important to take stock of lessons learned. How effective have different containment measures been in slowing the spread of Covid?
Have containment measures been costly in terms of economic growth, fiscal balances, and accumulated debt? This paper finds that countries with previous SARS experience acted fast and "smart", and were able to contain the virus by relying mainly on public health measures —testing, contact tracing, and public information campaigns— rather than stay-at-home requirements. Using past coronavirus outbreaks as an instrumental variable, we show that countries with past experience were able to contain the virus in a smart way, reducing transmission and deaths while also experiencing higher economic growth in In particular, the drastic shift to telework has dramatically changed how people work.
However, to the best of our knowledge, the effects of WFH on productivity are still unclear. By leveraging unique surveys conducted at four manufacturing firms in Japan, we identify the possible factors of productivity changes due to WFH.
Our main findings are as follows. First, after ruling out the time-invariant component of individual productivity and separate trends specific to employee attributes, we find that workers who worked from home experienced productivity declines more than those who did not.
Second, our analysis shows that poor WFH setups and communication difficulties are the major reasons for productivity losses. Third, we find that the mental health of workers who work from home is significantly better than that of workers who are unable to work from home. We use mobility data as a proxy for economic activity and compare the first wave of COVID to the second one.
Overall, our results show that NPIs were the main explanatory factor behind the mobility reduction in advanced OECD countries during the first wave. Focusing on 6 European countries in particular, we observe that those most affected during the first wave display higher elasticities to mobility restrictions, except for Italy where restrictions and the sanitary situation had similar impacts on mobility.
Looking at the relative effects of different types of NPIs we see that more stringent measures had more impact on mobility. Nevertheless, we remain cautious regarding these last estimates as the rapid sequencing of NPIs likely implies issues of statistical identification. A much debated issue in the COVID state aid to firms is the extent to which these measures keep non-viable firms afloat.
What are the characteristics of firms that receive aid and are they viable in the long term? Based on a survey of firms in the Netherlands, we find that on average, government support goes to better-managed firms and to those with low turnover expectations and high turnover uncertainty. This suggests that COVID state aid tends to go to firms that are most in need of it now and are more likely to be viable in the long term.
An older population, fewer hospital beds, lack of universal BCG tuberculosis vaccination, and greater urbanization are associated with higher mortality. The death rate has a consistent strong positive relationship with the Gini coefficient for income.
The elasticity of Covid deaths with respect to the Gini coefficient, evaluated at sample means, is 0. Combining a survey of Swiss firms with a quasi-experimental research design finds that the pandemic caused firms to reduce their investment plans by over one-eighth. Firms in regions more exposed to the virus and industries more sensitive to government-imposed restrictions cut their investments more.
Both financial constraints and increased uncertainty contributed to downward revisions, which concern investments to extend the production capacity above all. By contrast, the pandemic stimulated investments driven by technological factors or investments of innovative firms.
This paper finds empirical evidence that faster and smarter containment measures were associated with lower fiscal responses to the COVID shock.
We also find that initial conditions, such as fiscal space, income, health preparedness and budget transparency were important in shaping the amount and design of the COVID fiscal response. Stay-at-home policies due to the Covid pandemic have drastically increased housework and childcare.
Men changed their participation in household chores that are quasi-leisure, such as shopping and playing with children. We also document that an unbalanced division of the increased household chores during the lockdown, in particular on cleaning and childcare, is directly linked to an increase of the intrahousehold conflicts.
To conclude, this period did not structurally affect gender roles and stereotypes at home, despite minor intrahousehold changes. We evaluate the implications of relaxing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio during the COVID market disruption for bank balance sheet composition and credit provision. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to causally identify the effect of the SLR regulation change on bank level outcomes.
We find that the relaxation may have eased Treasury market liquidity by allowing banks to hold modestly greater inventories of Treasuries, and further allowed for a significant expansion of traditional bank credit. Our findings suggest that this risk-invariant leverage ratio was binding for banks during COVID, weakly affected bank liquidity provision in Treasury markets, and strongly affected banks' portfolio composition across asset classes, amounting to a shift of banks' loan supply schedules.
Thus, we highlight that countercyclical relaxation of uniform leverage constraints can increase bank credit provision during economic downturns. Given the binding nature of the SLR, the relaxation of this constraint may be more effective than other countercyclical measures in allowing banks to extend credit. Using aggregate-level data on Japanese multinational corporations MNCs in major host countries and regions, this paper investigates the impact of COVID on global production and supply chains with a focus on East Asia.
I find that the pandemic had substantial impacts on the performance sales, employment, and investment of Japanese MNCs and global supply chains exports to Japan and exports to third countries in Q1—Q3 China recovered quickly in Q2 and grew in Q3, whilst the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the rest of the world had still not fully recovered in Q3 Importantly, lockdown and containment policies in host countries had large negative impacts on the sales and employment of Japanese MNCs.
In contrast, I did not find positive effects of economic support policies on firm performance. Interestingly, whilst the firm expectations and business plans of Japanese MNCs were negatively affected by the COVID pandemic, their business confidence increased with strong overall government policy responses in host countries in Q1 In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes—including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs—and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time.
We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the labor market recovery of the summer and early fall stagnated in late fall and early winter. As noted by others, we find low-wage and minority workers are hardest hit initially, but that recoveries have varied, and not always consistently, between Blacks and Hispanics.
Statewide business closures and other restrictions on economic activity reduce employment rates concurrently, but do not seem to have lingering effects once relaxed. In contrast, virus deaths—but not caseloads—not only depress current employment, but produce accumulating harm. We conclude with policy options for states to repair their labor markets. The Covid Pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index CPI inflation.
Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I update the official CPI weights and re-calculate inflation with Covid consumption baskets. I find that the US CPI underestimated the Covid inflation rate, as consumers spent relatively more on food with positive inflation, and less on transportation and categories experiencing deflation.
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